76 days ago
I discuss the April fool without revealing which paper sent it. But apparently it is not an April Fool. Well I never. Then I look at Technology Minerals (TM1) and its problems with the FCA, Saietta (SED),Harland & Wolff (HARL) and house prices and the housebuilding stocks with a reminder of my top short idea in the sector.
286 days ago
In today’s bearcast I, again, discuss falling UK house prices as we head into a recession. Then it is onto Procook (PROC), Vast Resources (VAST), Eurasia Mining (EUA), Quadrise (QED) and Audioboom (BOOM) wondering if its fanboy Gary still feels lucky ahead of next week?
286 days ago
I start with some macro matters, base rates, house prices, the madness of Malcolm in buying housebuilders, etc. Then it is on to Currys (CURY) where Chris is wrong about the shares and where my experience as a customer is not good. Then its cash crisis ahoy at Colin Bird’s Bezant Resources (BZT) and finally when is it a good time to stand down as CEO and what can it mean, I refer to FinnCrap (FCAP) and to Pod Point (PODP) PS I reckon that FinnCap is due another profits warning PDQ as is its proposed merger partner Cenkos (CNKS).
291 days ago
Nigel says that my boredom is a buy signal. But is it? Maybe it is right to be bored as something has changed. After that a bit on house prices and why I don’t see a mega crash but would not buy housebuilders as Malcolm suggests I do. Finally, why not go for a quick death rather than a slow one and vote Labour? Oh, and I remind you why I may not be at liberty to bearcast on Tuesday. CORRECTION: Fellow Hammer J Price points out that Rice will be on £15 million a year not a week as I said in the podcast..
295 days ago
I know that I slam journalists who just cut and paste press releases but this one is so interesting I do just that. It comes from property purchasing specialist, the House Buyer Bureau. And it reads:
298 days ago
I start on the 0.5% hike in base rates: who is to blame? What does it mean for house prices, recession, corporate insolvencies and the next General Election? Then I look at Oracle power (OCP), Contango (CGO), Shanta Gold (SHG), More Acquisitions (TMOR) which is treating Doc Holliday very badly, Bidstack (BIDS) – target now zero – and Powerhouse Energy (PHE), ditto.
306 days ago
Forgive me, I start with last night’s football and West Ham’s triumph. I explain just how I will suffer on June 17th and its nothing to do with blisters. To the 90% who have yet to give to rogue bloggers for Woodlarks please think of the looming pain, 16 hours of non stop regurgitated Cadwalladr, and donate HERE. Then I look at: the Odey sex scandal, the Eurozone in recession while a free Britain is not, more on the fraud Tingo (US:TIO) including its 5 minute no Q&A (as promised) GM, at Zamaz (ZAMZ), BarryRoe (BEY) and then at house prices and housebuilders.
370 days ago
I start with Matt and the other speakers at ShareStock. It is exactly five months away and – as of today – 60% of the seats are bagged so book yours now HERE. Then it is onto house prices and the affordability issue and why the entire media and political class just don’t get it: Government is the problem not the solution. Finally is Matt right about Asos (ASC). I fear it is a high risk trade at this juncture.
543 days ago
I prepare for Halloween with pumpkin carving and soup today. Photos tomorrow. Sohail says he has given up on gold “experts”. I discuss this and then onto another area where there are a lot of “experts” who all talk their own book and it is the same one. I discuss house prices, volumes and stocks who I reckon will have a bad time includfing Purplebricks (PURP) which I expect to go bust in 2024, or possibly sooner
606 days ago
In today’s podcast I discuss today’s breaking news on disgraced Neil Woodford’s comeback and the scandalous deception Nanosynth (NNN) has attempted . Then it is on to UK and US house prices, that Moody’s forecast and related matters. Then Revolution Beauty (REVB) and Oxford Cannibanoid (OCTP) - as tipped by naughty Bethany Garner of Forbes who really should have her bottom spanked for her antics.
669 days ago
I start with the garden, before explaining why I am driving all the way to Greece – my rational decision is a canary in the coal mine of global inflation. I defend Neil Woodford against a low-grade Sunday Times journalist, with reference to 4D Pharma (DDDD). Then, I look at bonkers house prices and when the tears will start.
690 days ago
Today we are donating £2500 to Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks. I don’t ask you to follow suit but if you are among the 93% of listeners yet to donate to this cause with just 6 days to the event how about giving a fiver here? Then onto Genflow (GENF) in light of the Hindenburg dossier HERE. Then after observations from Chris Bailey earlier on Barratt (BDEV) I look at house prices and house builders.
1168 days ago
Craig has been stirred up by the trolls who harass me and my family and has now repeated the defamatory remark that I am encouraging others to harm the frightful pests. The Crime Officer at the Badger Trust is now also demanding that I rewrite articles though I have committed no crime. He is not apologising for making up false allegations about what I wrote. He is picking on the wrong man on behalf of morons who own shares in Zoetic (ZOE) and Supply@ME Capital (SYME). Does the Badger Trust really think that harassing a journalist whose only “crime” is exposing fraud, at the instigation of those supporting those frauds, is a good thing to do? I discuss both companies and the failings of Standard Listings with regards to frauds which they demonstrate in spades. I also look at house prices in London and here in the boonies.
1213 days ago
I wish you all a Happy New Year. I had a great New Year’s Eve as you can see HERE. In this podcast I look at how not all shares had a rotten 2020 then in detail at the push pull on house prices. After the best year in six in 2020, what is next?
1265 days ago
I discuss why they scan and reflect on the links between pointless lockdown and suicides. I discuss the final victory of Joe Biden and then look at house prices and why they have not yet collapsed and why this is not a re-run of the 1970s.
1444 days ago
Since warning you not to be short as the market almost bottomed it has been painful for those who ignored my advice. But I sense that a few opportunities may be opening up again. There is something Orwellian in the way that our Government makes statements about the Corona economic mess it has created with its non-sensical policies, the MSM parrots them and then as a nation we are expected, when not applauding the NHS or snitching on our neighbours for having two walks a day, to repeat and accept. And so we are told that the housing market is “opening up again.” And that swift action in getting housebuilders back to work & allowing estate agents to go to back to lying to buyers and sellers alike, will protect the nation’s favourite obsession, house prices.
1714 days ago
I start with the case of a banker Andrew Tinney who “acted without integrity” but thinks he has done nothing wrong. Discuss. Then ex banker Sajid Javid who wants to ramp up the housing asset bubble by switching stamp duty from buyer to seller. Why do you think he is oing that? Finally to Neil Woodford’s Income Focus Fund and a discussion of why it should be gated now but when it will actually be gated.
1925 days ago
In this podcast I look at the utterly useless coverage of the LCF scandal provided by the Sunday Times which seeks to blame the poor old FCA for daring to trying to stop a ponzi. I then look at the bloodbath on the high street and the madness and denial of some. There is comment on Patisserie Holdings (CAKE) and Pizza Express and also on house prices in New York and what that tells us about Brexit.
1941 days ago
I was re-watching the movie last night and ask the question. I discuss signs that the FCA really is getting stuck in, albeit too late. I look at too good to be true investments starting with London & Capital Finance. I look at house prices and why I think that bad data gives far too rosy a view. I look at US jobs data yesterday and what that means for base rates. And I look at the big short positions in AIM stocks. Don't bet against the bears! Now off to West Ham.
1968 days ago
I see that The Guardian and others are blaming Brexit for a fall in UK house prices. But hang on! House prices are crashing in Oz and Canada and sliding at an ever faster rate in the USA. What's that got to do with Brexit. The housing bubble in China is popping - how can you blame that on Nigel Farage? I explain why lower house prices are a good thing and what is really going on in today's podcast.
1986 days ago
This bearcast is prompted partly by news Purplebricks (PURP) is not telling you about and partly by Malcolm's buy note on Bovis (BVS) earlier and partly on some new housing data out yesterday. Suffice to say Purplebricks is in ever deeper merde, Malcolm Stacey is wrong and there really could be a big fall in UK house prices and volumes and it is just partly linked to Brexit. It is a pin and we know there is a bubble.
2026 days ago
I never had Roger Lawson of Sharesoc down as a natural wit but I did chuckle when I read his comments on Telford Homes (TEF) and London/UK house prices. He is bang on the money, echoing exactly what I said in bearcast yesterday. Anyhow back to Roger “it’s the way he tell’s ‘em”
2038 days ago
I am extending the Premaitha (NIPT) session at the 16th October UK investor event in London to allow an extended Q&A as I want folks to really grill the company. I shall. You can register and please do so HERE but hurry as the event is already 70% booked out! In this podcast I look at what really happened yesterday and why it shows the City in such a dreadful light. I also look at Tesla (TSLA) and Elon Musk where things go from bad to worse and at new US data and UK house prices.
2041 days ago
Come home to a real fire...buy a second home in Wales. You remember the sketch. Anyhow, the Mrs and i are looking and pondering because, as you know, she wants to pursue her career and I want to rear goats. The exercise, however, throws up very real questions about house prices. Moving on I look at Bushveld Minerals (BMN), Optibiotix (OPTI), Avanti Communications (AVN), Imaginatik (IMTK), Redhall (RHL) and Mitie (MTO) another company whose former boss helps to make Jeremy Corbyn's quite insane policies seem almost desirable.
2053 days ago
Most of what was in yesterday's bearcast on Angus Energy (ANGS) stands. The ramping is sordid and the company MUST come clean on Tidswell-Pretorious and his sordid share dealings. But I do not believe there is a placing at 6p. I was played and discuss that. Project Fear cheerleader Mark Carney says a no deal Brexit could cause house prices to fall by 35%. I explain why he is talking total cock (again). I look at Amur Minerals (AMC), Pan African Resources (PAF), Obtala (OBT), Online Blockchain (OBC) and ADVFN (AFN). I did not ask how ADVFN is affected by the new EU article 13 on copyright breaches? I cannot think that it will be a good thing for it.
2401 days ago
I start with a discussion on Big Sofa (BST) prompted by Cynical Bear's article today which is just wrong. CB writes HERE. Then it is onto capitalism and the useless Theresa May and then on to another reason why house prices are set to crash. Finally I discuss forward selling and whether it is wrong or illegal
2401 days ago
It is now quite clear that prices of houses in the better parts of London have fallen sharply and that the "Chelsea ripple" has already started to spread. Here in a less fashionable part of Bristol prices are off by 5-10%. The ripples are spreading. That is great news for young folks wanting to get onto the housing ladder. So what will Theresa May announce tomorrow? Madness. That is what.
2673 days ago
Once again I am sitting here in Shipston with a live audience of one, my father. So we have his take on George Michael - mine is HERE. My views on Syria are referred to in the podcast and the article I mention is HERE. Then I go onto my 8 macro calls for 2017 covering Europe and the Euro, interest rates, corporate earnings visibility, fraud & bankruptcies, house prices, shares, gold and oil.
2784 days ago
It is the anniversary of 9/11, the Al-Qaeda attack on the twin towers in New York. I look back on that with a few thoughts notably on how we in the West have rewritten history in such an Orwellian manner as we repeat our past errors. I then look at what the market for classic cars is telling you about the stockmarket and house prices. It is not good. I've been here before and know how it will end.
2823 days ago
I have been doing some work to show that the claims made by the left that Brexit has caused a sharp rise in hate crimes are at best academically flawed and thus unproven and at worst an outright lie. That leads me very directly onto claims made by Malcolm Stacey today on Brexit and house prices as he discussed Foxtons (FOXT) HERE. I take that article apart completely as my old friend is just wrong.
2870 days ago
I start with a discussion on how the sad events in Yorkshire may sway the Brexit vote before turning to Gary Newman's nonsense earlier today about Brexit, house prices and Foxtons (FOXT). Then it is onto a detailed look at Strat Aero (AERO) and also Regent Pacific, the new owner of Plethora (PLE) and in both cases its red flags ahoy big time.
2953 days ago
There is only one thing that Daily Mail readers love more than articles about how illegal immigrants can give you cancer and that is articles on how prices are going up. But today there is an article which warns that the Bank of England is set to try and stop Buy to Let becoming a bubble. It's too late! It is not if but when it all bursts.
3101 days ago
There is a seething anger in both the UK and the US among those who are not in the 1% but are hard working decent folk. We know that capitaism is not working as it should but also that the State makes things worse. Rising house prices may act as our Soma for now but not forever. Donald Trump, Globo, Jeremy Corbyn, The Kids Company fraud, David enigas all feature in this week's postcard from Tom Winnifrith
3283 days ago
Thank god i am not at Free Speech & Liberty pizza as every commie in London is marching past to celebrate "workers day". When is the day that celebrates the real stars: capitalists? After passing on news of Oakley's health I cover Daniel Stewart, the China frauds including Sorbic and Jiasen, Ascent Resources, Mosman Oil & Gas (joke), Coms, Mopowered, Horse Hill, Berkeley Minerals, Greville Janner, Begbies Traynor, UK house prices and the POS AIM Casino company that has sent me a lawyer's letter.
4081 days ago
I am really sure that I got sound and vision correct today! Fingers crossed. Greetings from a freezing Islington. I remember doing the first of these video postcards from a sun drenched Greece. I rather wish I was back there now although I guess it would be a bit less sun drenched. I digress.
On the agenda
1. Global warming nutters repenteth
2. UK loses AAA credit rating what does it mean?
3. Higher interest rates and UK house prices
4. Housebuilding stocks – notably Barratt Developments
5. Bearishness on the UK economy
6. What this means for the stockmarket
7. Tips on Nifty Fifty
8. UK Investor Show – an urgent plea
9. Plans for next week
PS. If you are not already signed up for it, please do sign up to my twice weekly free newsletter the Tomograph as it contains links to all my free content plus some exclusive articles. You can do so here.
And if you are on twitter can you follow me @tomwinnifrith
4137 days ago
This Government, like all Governments, wants to rig the housing market. It calculates – correctly – that it garners short term electoral gain by pushing up house prices even if this involves wholesale pissing away of taxpayer’s cash and ultimately also directly and negatively impacts on the standard of living. One day this almighty con must stop. UK house prices are too high and Call Me Dave might reckon that he can buck the market that he can beat nature, but like King Canute he, or some other Prime Minister will ultimately fail in a spectacular fashion. This is a great con trick played by the political classes on you with your money. We all lose in the end.
Oh okay, before anyone quibbles about UK house prices being too high:
4170 days ago
The Daily Mail has its knickers in a twist about how young hard working couples cannot afford to get on the housing ladder without help from middle aged hard working parents ( er…Daily Mail readers). The Council for Mortgage Lenders says action is needed. And the Conservative Party panders to this anger saying the situation “is not right”. There is a hint ( to appease Daily Mail readers) from some shit for brains housing minister, Grant Prisk, that the Government will take steps to address the “problem”. They are all wrong – they promote a ponzi scheme because it is popular to do so.
That young folks cannot “get on the housing ladder” is undeniable. That is because a) the banks will not lend unless you have a hefty deposit and b) prices ( in terms of price to income ratios) are by historic standards and in absolute terms too high.
Given that prices are too high it is exceptionally prudent of the banks to require steep deposits and having done their conkers on more or less everything they touched it is in no one’s interest (least of all the taxpayer who actually owns most of the banks) to force or bully them into making reckless loans in this area too.
So the only way to address this problem is for house prices to fall.
4204 days ago
So the FSA and the Mortgage lenders are going to make it bloody hard to get an interest only mortgage. This is to be done in the name of prudence since it is quite clear that large numbers of folks take out an interest only mortgage with no idea of how they will repay the capital in the end. As of now you are going to have to show how you can repay the capital and, if you are over 50, do so within 25 years. What does this all mean?
Clearly it will not assist the UK housing market.
4227 days ago
Ed Balls worked with Gordon Brown to wreck UK Government fianances. Even Keynes ( not my idol) argued that Governments should only run deficits in times of recession. In good times they should pay down debt. Balls is quoted today as saying that “Labour d not do balanced budgets”. That is indeed true. As someone said, the trouble with socialists is that they eventually run out of other people’s money. And so Balls was a key part of the team that ran up huge deficits in good times and bad.
As a result, I remind you get again that by 2016 the UK will be approaching a debt to GDP ratio of 90% – the point of no return. If one includes the numerous “off balance sheet items” we are there already. And so Balls has a plan which must win a prize for sheer lunacy.
4338 days ago
Well not exactly. Lucian started with a pint of “Village Idiot” – which Evil might think appropriate but is some sort of real ale. I had a pint of cider and then we enjoyed a bottle or two of Rioja. No lager. No kebabs. Just a pleasant night out in Oxford. The Village Idiot is served in the Turf – a pub my paternal grandfather frequented in days when students were not meant to go into pubs – the Turf has 4 potential exits so allowing for rapid escape. One day I shall write a bit more about his student days in the 1920s.
